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Bitcoin implied vs realized volatility
The 30-day implied volatility of Bitcoin options (Deribit DVOL) against how much Bitcoin actually moved over the last 30 days. Last updated 22 October 2026, 18:31 UTC.
Bitcoin volatility right now
Updated 22 Oct 2026, 18:31 UTC · descriptive data, not advice
- Bitcoin 30-day implied volatility (Deribit DVOL) is 38.6 %; 30-day realized volatility is 31.8 %.
- Implied is above realized by 6.8 points: options price in more movement than the last 30 days delivered.
- Implied volatility is higher than on 30 % of the days in the past year (range 34–83 %).
- Over the past year, implied volatility was above the volatility of the following 30 days on 56 % of days (average gap +1.0 points).
Implied vs realized volatility
Implied vs the volatility that followed
Each day's 30-day implied volatility against the realized volatility of the 30 days that came after it. In the past year implied was higher on 56 % of days, by +1.0 pts on average.
Then and now
| Implied | Realized | Spread | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Now | 38.6 % | 31.8 % | +6.9 pts |
| 1 day ago | 37.4 % | 31.9 % | +5.5 pts |
| 7 days ago | 38.8 % | 34.7 % | +4.2 pts |
| 30 days ago | 38.0 % | 36.0 % | +2.0 pts |
How to read it
Both lines are annualized volatility in percent. Implied (violet) is what the options market charges for the next 30 days; realized (teal) is what the last 30 days actually delivered. When the violet line is above, options are expensive relative to recent movement; when it drops below, the market is moving more than options were pricing. The spread chart underneath shows the gap directly. For the options themselves, open the live options chain; for dealer hedging levels see Bitcoin GEX.
Sources and method
- Implied: Deribit DVOL (BTC 30-day implied volatility index), hourly and daily closes from Deribit's public API.
- Realized: Binance BTCUSDT perpetual, 30-day realized volatility; hourly log returns over 720 hours (30 days), annualized with 8,760 hours, zero mean. The one-year view uses the same measure, read once a day at 00:00 UTC.
- Rebuilt every 10 minutes.
Open the live options chain Bitcoin GEXMax pain
FAQ
What is implied volatility?
The volatility the options market is pricing in: how much Bitcoin is expected to move per year, read from option prices. This page uses Deribit's DVOL index, a 30-day implied volatility built from Deribit's Bitcoin options, the most traded Bitcoin options market.
What is realized volatility?
How much the price actually moved. Here it is the 30-day realized volatility of the Binance BTCUSDT perpetual: the hourly log returns of the last 30 days, annualized (zero mean, the same convention as DVOL).
What does the spread between them mean?
Implied above realized means options price in more movement than the last 30 days delivered, so they are relatively expensive; this is the usual state and is often called the volatility risk premium. Implied below realized means options are relatively cheap compared with how the market has been moving.
Why compare implied with the volatility that followed?
Implied volatility looks forward 30 days, realized looks back. Comparing implied on a day with the volatility of the 30 days that came after it shows how often the options market over- or underestimated the coming moves.
Is a high or low implied volatility a signal?
It describes how options are priced, not where the price goes. This page is descriptive data, not a forecast or advice.
How often is it updated?
Every 10 minutes. Both series are hourly in the 30 and 90 day views and one point a day (00:00 UTC) in the one-year view.