Weekly market structure Final
Bitcoin this week: 12–18 October 2026
BTC fell 2.0 % over the week, from 83,723 to 82,078, in a 5.8 % range: narrower than 85 % of all weeks since December 2022. Price traded below the put wall on 1 day; the lowest was 79,732 on Thursday.
Day by day
| Day | Close | Change | Range | What stood out |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon 12 | 81,813 | −2.28 % | 3.2 % | The week's high, 84,340, came here |
| Tue 13 | 83,126 | +1.60 % | 3.9 % | A 161 BTC bid wall at 81,975 was eaten in Asia |
| Wed 14 | 81,642 | −1.79 % | 3.3 % | A 225 BTC ask wall at 83,414 was pulled in Asia |
| Thu 15 | 82,195 | +0.68 % | 3.6 % | The week's low, 79,732; traded below the put wall (80,000) and closed back above it; a 225 BTC bid wall at 82,271 was pulled in New York |
| Fri 16 | 81,578 | −0.75 % | 2.6 % | A 202 BTC bid wall at 81,002 was eaten in New York |
| Sat 17 | 81,456 | −0.15 % | 1.2 % | A 125 BTC bid wall at 81,201 was held in New York |
| Sun 18 | 82,078 | +0.76 % | 2.0 % | A 643 BTC bid wall at 80,850 was eaten in New York |
Sessions
New York moved the most (Tue to Sun), with an average range of 1.73 %, against 1.49 % in Asia and 1.33 % in London.
Asia saw the most walls eaten (6), London the most pulled (6).
Liquidity walls
From Tuesday to Sunday, across the three sessions, 15 walls were eaten, 15 were pulled before price reached them and 3 held. The largest: a 643 BTC bid wall at 80,850, eaten on Sunday; a 416 BTC bid wall at 81,960, pulled on Sunday.
Options positioning
The call wall stayed at 90,000 all week. The put wall moved from 83,000 to 80,000. The estimated gamma flip moved from 81,512 on Tuesday to 80,622 on Sunday, so price ended the week above it, in the zone where dealer hedging is estimated to dampen moves. Estimated dealer gamma at the price ended at 157 million dollars per 1 %.
Next week: what the market is pricing
What option prices and history show as of 19 Oct 23:05 UTC. It is not a forecast.
| What | Level | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Expected move to Fri 23 Oct, 08:00 UTC | ±3.0 % (±2,422): 79,618 – 84,462 | ATM implied volatility 30.7 %; about two in three priced outcomes fall inside |
| Max pain, 23 Oct expiry | 82,000 | Open interest; put/call ratio 1.23 |
| Largest open interest, 23 Oct | Puts 78,000 (2,057 BTC), 70,000, 80,000 · calls 90,000, 87,000, 88,000 | Deribit |
| Expected move to 30 Oct expiry | ±5.6 %: 77,538 – 86,766 | ATM implied volatility 33.3 % |
| Max pain, 30 Oct | 78,000 | Largest position: 95,000 calls, 25,570 BTC |
| Estimated levels | Put wall 80,000 · flip 80,622 · call wall 90,000 | GEX, standard dealer assumption |
What history shows after a narrow week
In the 50 weeks since December 2022 with a range this narrow (the narrowest quarter), the following week was wider in 80 % of cases. Its median range was 7.6 %, against 9.2 % for all weeks. Past behaviour, not a prediction.
Scheduled
- Fri 23 Oct, 08:00 UTC: weekly BTC options expiry.
- Fri 30 Oct, 08:00 UTC: larger expiry, with 148,846 BTC of open interest on Deribit. Expiry page.
See next week live.Swiftedge Depth shows the BTC order book, every trade and the GEX levels in your browser, and Swiftedge Options the whole options chain. Free, no sign-up.
Open Swiftedge DepthNot financial advice. This report describes what happened in the data and what option prices imply. It is not a signal or a forecast, and past behaviour does not predict future results. Dealer levels are estimates.